Expert in crypto and stock market trading with more than 7 years of experience.
A cryptocurrency enthusiast, first engaging with cryptocurrencies back in 2016. Strongly believes that cryptocurrency will be a crucial part of our everyday life
Traditional methods of analysis no longer work
We have invented our own new and unique method
For more accurate predictions, it is worth turning to Сhaos theory
We use fractal analysis as a method to identify the structure of price movement. It penetrates deep into the bowels of each ongoing process, thereby bringing us as close as possible to the truth. Why fractal? The principle of fractals is that a figure is like itself. As on the price chart, there are large and small cycles, ascending and descending, depending on the trend.
A minor impact on the system can have large and unpredictable consequences, including in a completely different place and period of time. Also with the market — it is very important to detect the initial conditions in order to predict the price behaviour in the future.
In this example, the ropes form exactly the same cycle. They resemble a graph line. If we put a weak person there who has never played sports, they will create a weak wave on the ropes, and if we put a strong person there, the waves on the ropes will be more expressive. Thus, this example demonstrates how the initial conditions work. Depending on which person is standing there, what initial conditions are given, the rope will move, that is, the price.
“In order to understand and learn how to apply fractal analysis, you need to change your usual worldview.
If a beginner is shown graphs and asked to look for triangles, then he will search, notice and find only these triangles. Our brain is designed so that if we need to focus our attention on something, we will later do it unconsciously, without noticing other important details.
As it happens with me: I focus only on statistics, since the initial conditions can be identified using it.
For example, as in the graphs below. We see that the temperature has dropped to minus 15, and then we notice a sharp sequential upward movement to minus 5. Thus, this is the first sign that an offset has occurred in the system, in the sequence.”
Artem Ibragimov
Crypto Asset Manager
Chart BTCUSDT 4H. TradingView.com
The Weierstrass-Mandelbrot function
Chart BTCUSDT 4H. TradingView.com
The Weierstrass-Mandelbrot function
“Paradoxical as it may sound, but in order to predict something, you need to understand that there is chaos. All systems, from the atom to the universe, initially move in a heavily tracked chaotic rhythm, but after a while they somehow strive for regularity, cyclicity, building certain trajectories. Science has repeatedly proved this statement.
There is a Weierstrass-Mandelbrot function that orders chaos. Let's call it the Randomness Function. For example, if you open the Bitcoin price chart for a month and compare it with this function, you can see similar characteristics and predict the future price of Bitcoin, as with any other price.”
Artem Ibragimov
Crypto Asset Manager
Fractal analysis of markets postulates the dependence of future prices on their past changes. It is important to indicate that the pricing process depends on the very initial conditions (past values), which in turn may be several decades ago.
Accordingly, it is very difficult to find them. To do this, you need to take a huge period of time, as Mandelbrot did in his study of the price of cotton for one hundred years, and look for initial conditions using statistics. Locally, the pricing process is random.
There are several bifurcation points on the function. The bifurcation point is the moment at which the curve decides whether to rise or fall. A kind of branching. As soon as the bifurcation point is passed, you should wait a little to predict further movement with confidence.
Why are there several bifurcation points? Because the function is divided into five stages, in each of which the curve makes a decision.
The first stage is the most important, because it sets the initial conditions for further movement of the curve. All these five stages are considered a cycle. After the final one comes the first one and so on. Each such cycle has many small cycles inside it, and those in turn also. Using the example of Bitcoin price charts on the market: you can set parameters by months, weeks, days, hours and even seconds, where one candle means one unit of a given range — these are large and small cycles.
The Weierstrass-Mandelbrot function
Graph of the weather forecast in November 2021, location unknown