December 4, 2023
4 Indicators of Crisis

Let’s talk about the underwear index, skyscrapers, and explain what baseball has to do with it all.

The Phillies Index

This is one of the more dubious and even humorous items, akin to “if you wash your car, it will rain.” It was once noted that victories by Philadelphia’s baseball teams in the World Series always preceded a crisis.

When the Philadelphia Athletics became the champions in 1929, the Great Depression began, and after their 2008 victory, a financial crisis ensued.

The Skyscraper Index

The situation here is a bit more serious. Construction and the economy are closely linked, and if the building process inevitably goes upwards – from the foundation to the completed skyscraper, then financially, it follows a quadratic function curve. Construction requires loans and investments, marking an economic peak. But as construction concludes, there’s a decline.

The Men’s Underwear Index

As long as sales are stable, everything is fine. A decrease in sales indicates that men are starting to save even on such items to preserve whatever savings they can.

The Recession Index

In 2002, The Economist magazine counted the number of articles with the word “recession” and found a pattern.

If the number sharply increases, a real crisis occurs. The index proved accurate: its signs coincided with the beginnings of recessions in 1981, 2001, and 2008.