Month: May 2024

According to rankings compiled at the beginning of the year, the following cities lead in the number of billionaires:

New York (USA):
110 billionaires with a total net worth of $694 billion.
The wealthiest resident—Michael Bloomberg ($106 billion).
The ‘Big Apple’ has topped this list for 11 years in a row, except for 2021.
Among New York’s billionaires are 62 Wall Street magnates, as well as figures from the financial and investment sectors, 14 real estate tycoons, and a dozen moguls from the fashion and retail industries.

Moscow (Russia):
74 billionaires.
The wealthiest resident—Vagit Alekperov ($28.6 billion).
Moscow made an impressive leap from sixth to second place after the number of billionaires increased by 12.
The growth in the number of billionaires in the Russian capital is attributed to the economic recovery following the downturn in 2022. This includes the owner of Gloria Jeans, which benefited from the departure of foreign companies from the fast-fashion segment.

Sharing second place with Moscow is Hong Kong (China):
74 billionaires.
The wealthiest resident—Li Ka-Shing ($37.3 billion).
This year, Hong Kong saw an increase of four billionaires—newcomers to this ranking, such as Jean-Louis van der Velde, the CEO of Tether.

Mumbai (India):
66 billionaires.
The wealthiest resident—Mukesh Ambani ($116 billion).
Mumbai also made a significant jump, moving up from seventh place, adding 11 billionaires from the engineering and construction business.

Beijing (China):
63 billionaires.
The wealthiest resident—Zhang Yiming ($43.4 billion).
Beijing, which held the top spot in 2021, has dropped to fifth. The fall in the rankings is related to the country’s economic difficulties.

Other cities in the top ten include:

Los Angeles (USA).
San Francisco (USA).
Shanghai (China).
London (United Kingdom).
Abu Dhabi (UAE).

It is worth noting that the number of billionaires worldwide continues to grow. In 2024, the number of people with a net worth of over $1 billion reached a record 3,200. Almost a quarter of them (750 people) reside in just 10 megacities, and the list of cities with the most billionaires is constantly changing, reflecting shifts in the global economy.

The data on the number of billionaires in different cities may vary depending on the sources.

This information is based on data from Forbes, Hurun, and other authoritative rating agencies.

They are accessible even to those who have never been interested in the field!

Nassim Taleb: ‘The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable’.
A Black Swan is a rare event characterized by unpredictability, significant impact, and post-event rationalization that makes it appear less random. Nassim Nicholas Taleb argues that Black Swans underpin nearly everything about our world, from the rise of religions to personal life events.

Steven Levitt and Stephen Dubner: ‘Freakonomics: A Rogue Economist Explores the Hidden Side of Everything’.
Freakonomics will change how you view the modern world. Through compelling narrative and insight, Levitt and his co-author Dubner show that economics is essentially the study of incentives—how people get what they want or need, especially when others want or need the same thing.

Edward Miguel and Raymond Fisman: ‘Economic Gangsters: Corruption, Violence, and the Poverty of Nations’.
The authors introduce readers to the hidden, chaotic, and violent worlds populated by lawless bandits. The book joins two detective economists as they trace how foreign aid money flows into the hands of corrupt governments and criminal underworld figures.

Daniel Kahneman: ‘Thinking, Fast and Slow’.
Engaging readers in a lively discussion about how we think, Kahneman reveals when we can trust our intuition and when we cannot, and how we can benefit from slow thinking. He offers practical and enlightening insights on how decisions are made in both business and personal life, and how to guard against the mental glitches that often get us into trouble.

Joshua Gans, Ajay Agrawal, and Avi Goldfarb: ‘Prediction Machines: The Simple Economics of Artificial Intelligence’.
Three distinguished economists interpret the development of artificial intelligence as reducing the cost of predictions. With masterful insight, they lift the veil on the AI myth and show how basic economic tools can provide insights into the AI revolution and serve as a foundation for actions by executives, managers, politicians, investors, and entrepreneurs.

What books would you recommend?

Currently, our fund is focusing on several sub-strategies.

The primary component of our engaged assets consists of a long position in securities that are attractive from both a fundamental and technical analysis standpoint. We also capitalize on movement moments.

Asset rotation occurs quite frequently. We strive to secure positions in quality securities, gradually increasing our stake as they grow, thus managing our position effectively. Currently, the long share in securities under this sub-strategy (Global Value) exceeds 60%.

We are also actively engaged in event-driven trading. Currently, we have several targeted positions from which we expect to see a percentage gain in the near term, contributing to the overall quarterly result.

One of the successful trades related to event-driven trading took place the day before yesterday. We purchased AMC shares during another meme stock surge. We managed to secure a position strategically and have already partially locked in profits, contributing positively to the fund.

Speculative trading in futures and options is also quite active at present. A few weeks ago, we closed a large volatility position that we had been holding since the beginning of the quarter. It added 2% to our returns. We are continuously searching for new speculative patterns for reversals or trend continuations in futures on oil, gold, silver, currency pairs, and S&P futures. Currently, this is our main focus.

We anticipate a significant revitalization in the stock market and IPO market shortly. It’s possible that we will see much more activity in this sub-strategy than in the last quarter, which saw only two such trades.

We also have a Fixed Income sub-strategy, which is currently inactive as we do not see any dynamics in these assets at the moment. There are no indications of growth in the “bodies” of these instruments. Naturally, if we hear a clear stance from the Federal Reserve System that rates will be lowered soon, and see the market beginning to price this in—particularly in how bonds and bond funds start moving—we will also begin to actively rebuild this position and increase it as the market moves. However, we believe that this play is not for this quarter or the next, but by the end of the year, we will find good entry points.

he fifteen-year history of gold trading provides valuable lessons about the dynamics of this asset. Analyzing its trajectory offers insights into its behavior and investment potential over time.

Historical Gold Prices

The gold market has witnessed fluctuations over the past decade, with prices ranging from $1600 to $1800 in 2010. Despite modest growth since then, early investors would have seen only marginal portfolio growth. Gold’s stability is evident in its ability to remain within a narrow range for extended periods, as observed between 2013 and 2016.

Gold and Bitcoin Growth

Both gold and Bitcoin have demonstrated significant growth due to increased investments. While gold attracted larger sums, comparing their volumes reveals their distinct market positions. Both commodities reached peak prices in 2024, driven solely by supply and demand, unlike equities with additional value propositions like stock buybacks.

Gold Expectations Curve

Investor expectations for gold prices reflect optimism, with projections nearing $2700 per ounce. However, realizing this scenario depends on inflation trends and central bank policies. Presently, cautious monetary policies globally temper immediate optimism, signaling mixed sentiments regarding gold’s future.

Gold Futures Turnover

Gold futures turnover competes with that of the S&P 500 index, underscoring its significance in trading circles. Its popularity among traders surpasses that of other commodities, including oil and gas, and even bonds. Understanding gold’s market weight is crucial for effective analysis and decision-making.

Central Bank Reserves and Geopolitical Factors

Recent years have seen a surge in gold purchases by central banks worldwide. Countries like China, Russia, and India have bolstered their gold reserves as part of efforts to diversify their portfolios and safeguard against currency devaluation.

India, with its burgeoning economy and cultural affinity for gold, represents a significant market for physical gold consumption. This trend indicates a growing demand for gold beyond speculative investments, contributing to its sustained market momentum.

Market Outlook and Conclusion

Gold’s prospects remain favorable, driven by sustained demand for physical metal and speculation against currency instability. While short-term corrections are possible, the long-term forecast for gold looks positive, supported by ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainties.

In comparison to other investment options like bonds, stocks, or real estate, gold offers a unique proposition as a store of value and hedge against market volatility. While Bitcoin presents an alternative investment avenue, its volatility and lack of institutional support distinguish it from gold as a more speculative asset.

In conclusion, gold continues to attract investors seeking stability and long-term growth potential. As global economic dynamics evolve, it is important to monitor the performance of this metal and its role in diversified investment portfolios for investors worldwide.

I would like to state that yesterday’s press conference was one of the calmer ones and delivered, more or less, exactly what the market was expecting. Luckily, fears of a hawkish shift in the Fed’s policy did not materialize. Powell maintained his status quo. The current state is: a resilient labor market and sideways-moving inflation. I believe that unless there is a shift in balance in either of these two, we will not see any change in the monetary policy. Therefore, every data reading in the upcoming periods is going to be crucial for evaluating and predicting any future bias. Namely, PCE and CPI data for inflation and JOLTS job openings and Initial Jobless Claims to monitor strength in the labor market. Now let’s say the Fed is going to get the desired confirmation towards 2% inflation. That leaves us, in my opinion, with two possible dates this year: the September and December meetings. If I had to personally pick, I think we could see it rather in December because the Fed will, in my opinion, try to avoid any monetary changes relatively close to the US Elections.

Scenario two is another round of inflation where a shift into a hawkish outlook would become a reality, and that would be a whole different story. But given the speed at which we shifted from almost 100% certainty of 4 rate cuts this year—and the market accepted this almost as a fact—to speculation about whether there will even be any rate cuts this year, I think this scenario does not seem as far-fetched as it might have a couple of months ago.