Global investors and economists anticipate that US President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff policy toward China will continue to weigh heavily on global trade through at least late 2025, according to a Bloomberg survey of 22 analysts, fund managers, and banks.

Persistent Tariff Pressure on Chinese Exports

The survey suggests that Trump’s 30% tariffs on Chinese imports, introduced earlier this year, will likely remain in place until the second half of 2025, dramatically reducing Chinese shipments to the US by as much as 70% in the medium term, as projected by Bloomberg Economics.

While the recent 90-day truce between the two countries has brought temporary relief, the majority of respondents see little chance of a meaningful de-escalation before the US midterm elections in 2026.

Limited Optimism for Negotiated Breakthroughs

Even in the event of a trade deal, analysts expect tariffs to only slightly ease to around 20%, still posing significant headwinds for China’s export sector.

Some participants see Trump’s tariffs as a political tool that he’s unlikely to give up easily, fearing that reducing them could alienate his base. Tariffs from Trump’s first term – averaging around 12% – are also expected to remain intact.

Economic Implications for China and Global Markets

Trump’s tariff stance is seen as one of the biggest variables for global markets this year, impacting not only Chinese assets but also currency and bond markets:

• The Chinese yuan is projected to hover around 7.2 per dollar by the end of 2025, with limited risk of sharp depreciation.
  
• Chinese government bond yields are expected to remain stable at around 1.7%.
  
• The CSI 300 Index could see modest gains, with a potential rise to 4,000 points by year-end, bolstered by tech sector growth and early export shipments.

However, China’s industrial output is already feeling the pinch, with data forecasted to show a slowdown to 5.9% growth in April, down from 7.7% in March. Exports and factory activity have also softened, adding further strain to the manufacturing sector.

Risks Remain Elevated

Several experts caution that Trump’s unpredictable approach to tariffs makes forecasts.

Despite a temporary truce, the US-China trade conflict is far from resolved, and Trump’s hardline stance is expected to continue disrupting global supply chains, corporate earnings, and market sentiment into late 2025 and beyond.

If March was wild, April 2025 flipped the script entirely. Markets cracked, empires trembled, and the future came crashing into the present.

Trump vs. Powell Goes Nuclear

In an unprecedented move, President Trump formally requested the dismissal of Fed Chair Jerome Powell – sending the dollar into a nosedive and triggering the worst one-day drop on the Nasdaq since 2022.

Wall Street is calling it: the end of Fed independence? Global investors aren’t waiting to find out.

Gold Hits $3,700 – and Keeps Climbing

Amid the chaos, gold soared past $3,700/oz as central banks hoarded bullion like never before. China and India led record physical demand, while ETFs saw $21B in inflows – the highest since COVID.

Gold bugs whisper: $4,000 is next.

US Exceptionalism Cracks

Jefferies, Citi, and BlackRock downgraded US equities – citing tariff wars, political instability, and a Fed under fire. Hedge funds are rebalancing out of the dollar and into Asia and Europe.

EV Chaos: Tesla Recovers, BYD Surges, Legacy Auto Crashes

Trump’s 25% auto tariffs hit full force. Ford and VW shares tanked. Tesla rebounded as a “made-in-America” darling – but BYD shocked markets by announcing a Texas factory in defiance of tariffs.

NVIDIA Meltdown Sends AI Stocks into Freefall

After fresh export bans to China, NVIDIA slashed guidance – losing $150B in market cap in two days. AI darlings followed suit. Was the AI bubble inflated? Or is this just a violent cooldown?

Oil Rockets to $112 as Middle East Tensions Flare

A drone strike on critical Saudi infrastructure sent Brent crude soaring past $112. Inflation fears returned with vengeance – and central banks may be forced back into action.

Space Treaties? UN Holds Emergency Session on Satellite Overload

After two near-collisions between rival constellations, the UN launched emergency talks on “orbital traffic control.” Musk, Bezos, and China are all in the hot seat.

Gold has been a safe haven asset for centuries during times of political and economic uncertainty. In 2025, this status has only strengthened: the precious metal’s rapid price surge has outperformed nearly every other major asset class.

According to the World Gold Council, inflows into gold-backed funds reached $21 billion in the first quarter of 2025 – the highest level since the Covid-19 pandemic.

Gold prices hit historic highs in April, surpassing $3,500 per ounce, fueled by growing demand amid new trade tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration.

Why is Gold Back in the Spotlight?

• Inflation Hedge. New tariffs are pushing global prices higher, and gold traditionally acts as a protection against currency devaluation.
  
• Weaker Dollar. Amid unstable U.S. trade policies, the dollar fell to a three-year low against major currencies, making gold more attractive for international investors.
  
• Cultural Demand. In China and India – the largest gold markets – buying gold remains deeply ingrained in traditions, further sustaining demand.
  
• Central Bank Buying. In 2024, central banks bought more than 1,000 tons of gold for the third consecutive year, aiming to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar. According to the World Gold Council, central banks now hold around 20% of all gold ever mined.
  

Main Growth Drivers:

• Record purchases by central banks.
  
• Rising geopolitical instability and trade tensions.
  
• Declining confidence in the U.S. dollar and Treasury bonds.
  
• Strong traditional demand for physical gold in Asia.
  

Potential Risks to the Rally

While the trend remains strong, analysts warn that a major de-escalation of tariff wars or a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine could lead to a pullback in gold prices.

However, support from central bank buying remains the market’s key pillar. And currently, there are no signs that large holders plan to sell their reserves.

Physical Gold: Practical Considerations

Although gold is highly liquid, physical ownership involves costs for storage, security, and insurance. Recently, logistical bottlenecks emerged as 400-ounce London bars had to be recast into 100-ounce bars to meet COMEX requirements in the U.S., slowing down delivery during surges in demand.

In 2025, gold has once again proven itself as the ultimate safe-haven asset for investors.

Amid political uncertainty, global trade wars, and a weakening dollar, gold remains one of the most attractive defensive assets worldwide.

April 24, 2025 – The global equity rally paused sharply as investor confidence was shaken by fresh doubts surrounding the resolution of the U.S.-China trade war. Markets retreated across regions, while haven assets gained traction amid deepening geopolitical and economic uncertainty.

Equity markets faltered on Thursday as hopes for a swift U.S.-China tariff deal faded. U.S. stock futures slid after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent cast doubt on any near-term resolution, revealing that a full trade agreement may take up to three years. Meanwhile, Beijing confirmed that no current trade talks are taking place, further fueling market anxiety.

U.S. and Global Stocks Fall

U.S. futures turned negative following Bessent’s comments, while European stocks dropped, weighed down by a mix of disappointing corporate earnings and fading optimism over trade de-escalation. In Asia, equities snapped a five-day winning streak, reflecting the fragile nature of current market sentiment.

The volatility highlights the challenge investors face in navigating the erratic policy signals from the Trump administration, particularly around tariffs. Trump hinted at potential tariff rate changes within two to three weeks, yet these remarks were quickly offset by Bessent’s more cautious tone, suggesting no imminent rollback of trade barriers.

Safe Havens in Demand

As risk appetite diminished, the U.S. dollar weakened, with investors seeking safety in the Swiss franc, Japanese yen, and gold, the latter rebounding strongly in early trading. U.S. Treasury yields ticked lower, particularly in shorter maturities, reflecting the return of a risk-off mood.

Earnings Under Scrutiny

On the earnings front, IBM shares dropped 8% in premarket trading after results failed to meet expectations. In Europe, Unilever gained on stronger-than-expected sales, while BNP Paribas declined following a drop in profit.

Market participants are increasingly viewing recent rallies as fragile. The lack of policy consistency from Washington, combined with a softening macroeconomic outlook, is prompting calls for greater global diversification.

What’s Next?

China’s latest statement urged the U.S. to revoke unilateral tariffs and approach negotiations with “sincerity”, reiterating that progress will remain elusive unless the U.S. clarifies its goals.

As uncertainty persists, strategists at Jefferies Financial Group recommend reallocating towards Chinese, Indian, and European assets, warning that U.S. equity valuations are stretched and vulnerable to further downside.

As global economic uncertainty deepens, investors are facing a fresh wave of market volatility, this time fueled by political friction at the highest levels of U.S. economic leadership. On Monday, U.S. stocks and the dollar fell sharply amid growing concerns that President Donald Trump may follow through on his long-standing threat to fire Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.

Market Jitters Over Central Bank Independence

While legal experts argue that firing a Fed Chair is not an easy task – and Powell himself has publicly stated he would not resign under pressure – the mere speculation is shaking investor confidence. The dollar fell by as much as 1%, reaching its lowest level since late 2023, while U.S. equities opened the week deep in the red.

The selloff intensified following remarks from White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett, who confirmed that Trump is “studying the matter” of potentially removing Powell. This, combined with the president’s renewed public call for interest rate cuts, has added a new layer of instability to an already uncertain outlook.

Dollar’s Decline Signals Shift in Global Confidence

International markets reacted swiftly. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index saw one of its steepest declines in recent months, while the euro surged to a three-year high and the yen gained ground, reflecting a global rotation away from U.S. assets.

Foreign exchange experts suggest the erosion of central bank independence could have long-lasting consequences.

Recession Fears Resurface

With Trump’s aggressive tariff policies already dragging on U.S. growth and contributing to inflation uncertainty, the pressure on Powell risks compounding the situation. Former New York Fed President Bill Dudley warned that despite market hopes for three rate cuts this year, the Fed is likely to proceed with caution given the mixed signals on inflation and growth.

The U.S. yield curve also reflected deepening fears. The spread between two-year and 30-year Treasury yields widened for a record ninth straight week, indicating concerns about long-term inflation and weak growth prospects.

Wall Street Turns Cautious

Several major financial institutions have downgraded their outlooks for U.S. equities. Citigroup, Bank of America, and BlackRock all pointed to weakening fundamentals and diminishing investor faith in “U.S. exceptionalism.”

Conclusion: U.S. Market Status in Question

With Trump escalating political pressure on the Federal Reserve, the U.S.’s reputation as a stable economic anchor is under threat. Even if Powell remains in place, the optics of political interference are undermining confidence in U.S. institutions – potentially reshaping global investment flows for the months to come.

As markets continue to digest these risks, one thing is clear: the battle for control of U.S. monetary policy is no longer just a domestic issue – it’s a global concern.

As global markets reel from the intensifying trade war and growing fears of a recession, headlines are flooded with financial jargon that can feel overwhelming — especially in times of volatility. With U.S. President Donald Trump doubling down on tariffs and uncertainty rattling investor confidence, understanding the language of market turbulence is more important than ever.

Below is a glossary of key market terms to help you navigate the chaos with confidence:

Bear Market

A bear market traditionally means a decline of 20% or more in a stock index, signaling a broad crisis of investor confidence. Some experts argue for a more nuanced view — like a secular bear market, marked by extended volatility and economic challenges. The term may come from the bear’s fighting style — striking downward — or 18th-century trading of bear skins.

Black Swan

A black swan is a rare and unpredictable event with massive consequences — like a financial crash or pandemic. Coined by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in 2007, it stands in contrast to a white swan (predictable) or gray swan (foreseeable but unlikely). These events can reshape entire markets.

Buying the Dip

This refers to purchasing stocks after a significant drop, with the hope they will rebound. It’s a popular long-term strategy — but risky in uncertain times. As Roundhill Investments’ CEO put it, “buying the dip is like buying discounted tickets to a show without knowing who’s performing.”

Circuit Breakers

When markets fall too fast, circuit breakers are triggered — halting trading temporarily to prevent panic-driven collapses. These are automatic and apply to exchanges or specific stocks when price thresholds are breached.

Contagion

In finance, contagion describes how panic or losses in one market or asset class can spill over into others — often regardless of fundamentals. It’s a ripple effect that can amplify volatility across regions or sectors.

Correction

A correction is a decline of 10% or more in a stock or index from recent highs — but it’s considered temporary. Unlike bear markets, corrections are often short-lived and may even present buying opportunities.

Crash

A crash is a sudden, dramatic drop — often double digits — in stock prices, usually triggered by panic. Examples include Black Monday (1987) and the 2008 financial crisis. Crashes often lead to bear markets and are the reason behind circuit breaker mechanisms.

Safe Haven Assets

When markets fall, investors seek refuge in safe haven assets — instruments believed to retain value during turbulence. Examples include gold and certain government bonds, which are considered more stable amid volatility.

Margin Call

Margin trading involves borrowing money from a broker to buy stocks. If the value of those stocks falls too low, the broker issues a margin call, requiring the investor to either add more collateral or repay the loan — often forcing sales during downturns.

Short Selling

Short sellers bet on a stock’s decline by borrowing shares and selling them, then buying them back at a lower price. If the stock rises instead, short sellers incur potentially unlimited losses, making it a high-risk, high-reward strategy.

VIX (Volatility Index)

Known as the “Fear Index”, the VIX measures expected volatility in the U.S. stock market over the next 30 days. Based on S&P 500 options, it’s widely tracked as a sentiment gauge, spiking when fear grips the market.

In times of extreme volatility, knowledge is one of the best tools an investor can have. Understanding these key terms won’t prevent market swings — but it will help you make smarter, more informed decisions. Whether you’re a seasoned investor or new to the game, knowing what’s happening — and why — is the first step to staying ahead of the storm.