Global investors and economists anticipate that US President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff policy toward China will continue to weigh heavily on global trade through at least late 2025, according to a Bloomberg survey of 22 analysts, fund managers, and banks.
Persistent Tariff Pressure on Chinese Exports
The survey suggests that Trump’s 30% tariffs on Chinese imports, introduced earlier this year, will likely remain in place until the second half of 2025, dramatically reducing Chinese shipments to the US by as much as 70% in the medium term, as projected by Bloomberg Economics.
While the recent 90-day truce between the two countries has brought temporary relief, the majority of respondents see little chance of a meaningful de-escalation before the US midterm elections in 2026.
Limited Optimism for Negotiated Breakthroughs
Even in the event of a trade deal, analysts expect tariffs to only slightly ease to around 20%, still posing significant headwinds for China’s export sector.
Some participants see Trump’s tariffs as a political tool that he’s unlikely to give up easily, fearing that reducing them could alienate his base. Tariffs from Trump’s first term – averaging around 12% – are also expected to remain intact.
Economic Implications for China and Global Markets
Trump’s tariff stance is seen as one of the biggest variables for global markets this year, impacting not only Chinese assets but also currency and bond markets:
- The Chinese yuan is projected to hover around 7.2 per dollar by the end of 2025, with limited risk of sharp depreciation.
- Chinese government bond yields are expected to remain stable at around 1.7%.
- The CSI 300 Index could see modest gains, with a potential rise to 4,000 points by year-end, bolstered by tech sector growth and early export shipments.
However, China’s industrial output is already feeling the pinch, with data forecasted to show a slowdown to 5.9% growth in April, down from 7.7% in March. Exports and factory activity have also softened, adding further strain to the manufacturing sector.
Risks Remain Elevated
Several experts caution that Trump’s unpredictable approach to tariffs makes forecasts.
Despite a temporary truce, the US-China trade conflict is far from resolved, and Trump’s hardline stance is expected to continue disrupting global supply chains, corporate earnings, and market sentiment into late 2025 and beyond.